l

Space

SETI

Where Are the Aliens?  (1)    (2)

Climate

Extinction

SETI Links

UFOs

If you see an object in the sky – and you don't know what it is – it is, by definition, a "UFO" (Unidentified Flying Object).   Too many people use "UFO" as if it means "flying saucer with aliens from another solar system", or something similar.   All it means is, you haven't identified whatever it is. Of course, a lot of people who have seen UFO's, or read about them, seem to think they are proof of alien visitation.   Elsewhere on this site I have a page on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI).   Wouldn't it be nice if we didn't have to search – if the aliens had actually come to visit us?   Unfortunately, I don't think there's any credible evidence to support this view.   I come to this debate from the viewpoint of a "former believer".   When I was much younger, I thought there was some evidence, now (after a decent amount of research) I believe there isn't. Some people have argued that the pyramids, or the statues on Easter Island, or other wonders, were built by aliens.   As for evidence, they go through some exercises purporting to show earthly civilizations of that level of development were incapable of building them, so aliens must have.   In essence, they argue "I can't imagine how they (ancient humans) could have built them, so spacemen must have."   To put it bluntly, such arguments are worthless.   If the existence of alien intelligence is ever proven, it will be one of the most – if not the most – exciting, overwhelming, and yes, terrifying, discoveries in human history.   No one should believe it based on a lack of imagination by the supposed discoverer.   The late Carl Sagan:   Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. As a child, I had heard a number of reports of UFO's, some from personal acquaintances, and was intrigued.   I had also read a number of popularized accounts, which seemed substantive enough to suggest there was something real behind the reports. One account was of the Ubatuba, Brazil case.   According to the account, a UFO had exploded over the ocean, near the Brazilian city, in 1957.   A witness had managed to grab a piece of it, and the chemical analysis of the material (which was magnesium) indicated it "could not be duplicated by existing earthly technology."   Had the account had been true, that would be very interesting.   Unfortunately, it wasn't. Before I explain further, I need to digress.   The U.S. Air Force had, for many years, investigated UFO sightings via its Project Blue Book.   It was concerned that some other nation (the Soviet Union, perhaps) was indeed testing high-performance aircraft.   Or, if there were aliens visiting the Earth, were they a threat?   In the late 1960's, the Air Force turned over its Blue Book records to the University of Colorado.   The University investigated the most interesting cases, and created the Condon report.   The report is now online, thanks to the Capitol Area Skeptics.   You may even mirror the report, as long as you include the University of Colorado copyright notice. The Ubatuba case is covered in the report.   The piece of magnesium wasn't particularly interesting.   In fact, as far as I know, no piece of a UFO (that can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt) has ever been collected.   If it were, and it could be shown to be well beyond current earthly technology, that would be very strong evidence of alien intelligence. As I read the report, I noticed three things:

(1)

There were a lot of reports (probably 90% – 95%) which could easily be explained;

(2)

The interesting cases could usually be explained by a little more analysis and effort, leaving the truly exciting cases at about 1% of the total;

(3)

There are enough outright frauds out there, who are extremely clever, to make much of the 1% suspect;

As an illustration of (3), I came across the McMinnville case, which is the most interesting (in my opinion) case in the report.   I believe it's one of the most interesting cases on record.   The investigator's conclusion:

This is one of the few UFO reports in which all factors investigated, geometric, psychological, and physical appear to be consistent with the assertion that an extraordinary flying object, silvery, metallic, disk-shaped, tens of meters in diameter, and evidently artificial, flew within sight of two witnesses.   It cannot be said that the evidence positively rules out a fabrication, although there are some physical factors such as the accuracy of certain photometric measures of the original negatives which argue against a fabrication.

When I read this, I was astounded.   I had become extremely skeptical after the Ubatuba case; now I began – again – to feel there was something to (at least some) UFO sightings.   But soon after I read the Condon report, I read another report that claimed to debunk the McMinnville case.   I don't remember the author, but Robert Sheaffer wrote a 1969 paper on the case.   It caused the Condon report's chief investigator of that case to reconsider his conclusion.   Sheaffer's report is now online. No piece of a UFO has ever been found – or at least shown to be well beyond current earthly technology.   And if the McMinnville case, the most interesting case on record, can be debunked, it seems unlikely that any aliens have visited Earth.   Or if they have, they have left no evidence.   Until such evidence is forthcoming, I will remain a UFO skeptic. If you're interested in more UFO information, this page might be of interest.

TOP